David Hayes is convinced bookmakers have got it wrong with their Underwood Stakes assessment of Crackerjack King.

The least fancied of two Hayes-trained runners in the Group One race at Caulfield, Crackerjack King is at $51 but the trainer believes he should be no more than half that quote.

A Group One winner in Italy in May 2012, Crackerjack King will be having his third start for Hayes after his Australian career was delayed when the trainer decided to give him a lengthy break after he aggravated a previous tendon injury.

"I think Crackerjack King is a lot better chance than his odds suggest," Hayes said.

Crackerjack King was eighth, beaten four lengths, in the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes (1600m) on September 6 at his second Australian start and steps up to a more suitable 1800 metres.

"I reckon he made massive improvement from his first run to his second. And he wasn't that far off all the placegetters last start," Hayes said.

"I know how much he's improved, so I'm expecting him to be competitive."

While Crackerjack King might be an outsider, Hayes and co-trainer Tom Dabernig have one of the fancied Underwood runners, Stipulate, who is on the third line of betting at $6.

Stipulate earned his high rating with his impressive first-up win in the Listed Heatherlie Handicap (1700m).

"Stipulate is stepping up from handicap to weight-for-age. But I thought in the handicap he showed a weight-for-age turn of foot," Hayes said.

"He just looked a good horse to me. I'm expecting a first three finish."

Hayes expects the Underwood to give him a guide as to which way to go with Stipulate who is down the order of entry for the Caulfield Cup and unproven at the weight-for-age conditions of the Cox Plate.

"We'll find a few things out on the weekend," Hayes said.

"If he can run a place or go close, he's qualified for the Cox Plate. And if he wins, he's qualified for the Caulfield Cup.

"We've just got to study the horse a bit."

Hayes has his sights on the Caulfield Cup with Spillway who backs up in the Naturalism Stakes (2000m) after his fourth in the Makybe Diva Stakes last Saturday.

A win on Saturday would secure an automatic Caulfield Cup spot.

"I'm pretty confident that he'll go very close," Hayes said.